00:00 This is the change in CFR from January to February, in parts of China. 00:06 So, in Wuhan, where COVID-19 was first discovered, its CFR started out quite high, over 20% and went down to under 5% rather quickly. 00:20 In Hubei province, the same trend was observed, but in that sense it was a bit of the opposite going on though. 00:28 It started out low, went to a low peak and then descended afterwards. 00:35 The rest of China, it started about 5%, then came down and plateaud at about 1% or so. 00:42 In China overall, followed the same trend as Wuhan. 00:46 The point here is that CFR starts out high as we test the most symptomatic cases, and then levels off to a lower level when testing becomes more commonplace. 01:01 As a result, we have to be very careful in how we interpret the CFR earlier on in an epidemic because testing is still ramping up. 01:12 Here are some examples of initial CFRs in various parts of the world for COVID-19. 01:18 So in the world, we see it started out low, then rose quickly. 01:23 In Europe, a similar trend. 01:25 In the United States, it started high, came down, then came up again. 01:29 In China, as we just saw, it started low, then went to a peak, then came down and so forth. 01:37 The lesson from this curve, these curves rather, is that CFR is unstable earlier on in the epidemic. 01:46 So we have to wait, we have to give it some time, to collect more data to allow testing to be deployed on a more even and distributed basis before we get a true sense of how lethal the disease actually is. 02:02 I mentioned that age is important as well. 02:05 So for COVID-19, let's look at some of the CFRs in different parts of the world as distributed by age. 02:12 South Korea, we see that lethality increases dramatically as we get into the later years. 02:20 Same as Spain, same with China and of course, same with Italy. 02:24 The lesson from this graph is that as noted, the death rates for COVID-19 are extremely gated by age, but also by geography. 02:37 So these are multi-variable analyses. 02:40 It matters where you live, it matters how old you are. 02:43 It matters how many comorbidities you have and so forth. 02:49 Now, if I tell you that the CFR for COVID-19 is about 3%, well that's an average of all the ages of people who got the disease. 02:59 But if your population skews older as does the population of Italy, more so than the population of the USA, chances are you'll have a higher CFR because you'remore likely to die if you're older. 03:12 So stratifying lethality rates by age category is sometimes a useful thing to do, especially for determining patient prognosis, but also in understanding the impact of the disease on your population.
The lecture Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 by Raywat Deonandan, PhD is from the course Pandemics.
Which age range has the highest CFR for COVID-19?
What is the average CFR for COVID-19 in all age ranges?
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