Let?s look at Demographic Shifts and Social Change.
Demographic Transition is a model that describes
a country?s population change overtime.
We know that this isn?t a static process
and that would in a separate time.
You going to see some changes.
And if you look over longer
period of time or across countries
you also see changes in demographics.
So, it moves to a period of high births
to deaths rates to low birth/death rates
which stabilizes a population.
So you might start off with
a lot of births and a lot of deaths.
So they kind of balance each other out.
But then you transition to the second style
where we have low births to deaths
and that stabilize the population.
So there?s a growth phase and
there's a stabilization phase.
So Population Growth is the rate
at which the population increases
in a given time period expressed as a
fraction of the initial population.
You?re going to force
a little bit of math here.
And we should be familiar with
the way that we can calculate this.
So, population growth rate equals
the current population minus
the initial population over the initial population
times a 100 will give us a percentage.
What are we looking at here?
If we want to look at changes over say
a year or starting, we?re in 2016 right now.
So say we want to start
the exact same time in 2015.
What was your population?
So say the population was 10 million people.
And then, you?re going
to look at where we at today.
or actually at 16 million? sorry,
where at? sure 16 million right now.
Your going to take 16 million minus the
initial population which was 10 million.
And you going to divide that by the
initial population which was 10 million
times a 100 to get a value.
How do you establish what?s comprising or
what?s making up the current population?
All we know that the current population is
actually made up of the initial population.
That?s what you started with.
10 million in this scenario.
Then we have some births this year.
We add the births but then we must have
had some subsequent deaths as well.
So you subtract the deaths.
And then we?re going to have some people
that are coming into our country or immigrating.
But they?re also some kind
of people out there leaving.
You take all of that and you do the math,
that gets you your actual
current population value.
Now, we got to remember as well, as a caveat here,
That a lot of this is done
through consensus or surveys
And it?s kind of an extrapolation
on some subsampling.
So this isn?t an exact number
or it?s more trans but
it at least gives you some idea or some
estimation of what?s actually happening.
So for currently for most countries
we actually have positive growth, right.
Countries are getting more and more populated.
Many countries support positive
growth through compensation.
They?re actually wanting to grow their population.
How things and certain countries
where you would get a monthly bonus.
It?s kind of called sometimes
a baby bonus and you?re going to check.
So you?re being subsidize or you get
other tax benefits if you have children
with the idea being let?s bolster
our population. It?s considered
a status of success where
you have population growth.
And it also helps bolster your economy. It helps
further propagate the social cultural values.
Now, in developing countries,
this positive growth made sense
because it actually increased
their labor force.
So you can see in this image here, we have
all bunch of people working in the field.
And the idea here is where
you don?t have a necessary knowledge power
and you?re more labor based.
if you don?t have a technology
and you?re more of a work force.
The more hands you have on deck,
the more powerful and the better you are.
That?s why in developing countries it?s not
just not 1 or 2 kids it might be 4,5,6 kids
or they support having more and more children.
Now, this model this demographic
ransition model has five stages.
And in each stage, you will
notice some differences in that ratio
that we had just try to figure out.
In the first stage,
we have the Pre-Industrial Society.
And there's high births and death rates
which are almost are balanced.
Which means there's low population growth.
So if you have 50,000 births but then
you also have say 50,000 deaths
That kind of count each other out.
So, all human population are believed to have had
this balance until the late 18th century.
Because of the whole bunch of reasons.
The economy, the lack of available resources,
the lack of understanding of health
and actual healthcare.
So a lot of people being born
but a lot of people were dying.
Now, we get to Stage 2, which
we?d see in developing countries.
In here the death rate drops rapidly due to
the improvement in food supply and sanitation
with increase lifespans and reduce disease
due to improve healthcare and education.
So we?re getting to a better place
for sure. And what this does is
it allows for rapid increase
in the demographic change
and it increases the population of our country.
Next is Stage 3 or we call the
Mature Industrial Age.
At this point births rates decline
due to access to contraception
and there's changing social trends
towards smaller families.
So at this point, we have
birth control,we have condoms,
we have more educational around
the fact that you can control birth
and so rates start to decline.
And we also see that?s there's
a changing social trend.
So people don?t want to have the 15,
16 people in their family
And that number declines dramatically.
Now back at over the Stage 4,
which is the Post-Industrial Society.
And at this point, not only our births rates
low but death rates are low.
This leads to a similar situation that we
had in stage 1. But in this point,
the population has been growing
through stages 1 and 3.
So we have a fairly high population
and it?s starting to become stable.
The population like
we say has been growing.
Now, this is a scenario that
you would see in countries like
US, Australia and most of Europe, in Canada,
where we have people who are not having
10 kids or just having 1 maybe 2
They are living a long great lives,
high quality of life because of the
quality of the healthcare that we have,
the access to healthcare that we have
and the quality of life that?s available.
So great place to be.
Now, some propose the Stage 5.
So Stage four is certain, a stage five
which is slightly uncertain and that?s,
it propose a birth rates will continue
to decline to below death rates.
And so, at this point we?re actually
going to start to see a population decline.
And we are actually starting
to see this in certain places.
It?s a little bit hard to attain this
and its usually maybe not as long live.
But the proposal is that overtime this is
where most of us are going to actually had to.
So, the Malthusian Theories are prediction of a
force return to decreasing our stable growth
once population growth has
outpaced agriculture production.
So, we call this the global breaking point.
In English, what we?re saying
this theory is saying, is that
we?ve had this great run where we?ve
had essentially a limited resources.
and we?ve had nothing really
limiting our potential for growth.
You can have as many kids as
you can really afford really.
And so, the limiting factors are more
around sort of personal drivers as opposed
to social cultural or global drivers.
That?s going to change overtime. And they?re
saying, eventually we are getting it to a point
we just don?t have enough food,
shelter, space to accommodate.
And so we can't keep having babies,
we can't keep going
at some point things are going
to actually return to having
a lot less babies more death or no babies.
And they?re going to start to see this
decline coming back down.
So you can see in the image here. This is from
the UN looking at some of the data
that they per forth in the model. And you can
see with the line is going up gradually.
Then we see a nice dramatic increase. And that?s
sort of the linear fashion on that right now.
That once that blue line stops, we have three options:
One were continues to incline will be
a high trend where we continue our growth
and the patterns that we have now.
Which as you could see become
exceedingly high and almost unmanageable.
And then we have a medium where
things are going to start to taper off.
that will be the middle line.
And then we have, what will the
line with the Malthusian Theory
is that we?re going to see is the actual decline.
And so that what we say
is the global breaking point.
So at that point, which one of
this is going to actually come true?
And if it?s if we surpassed the breaking
point we expect to see the decline.