00:00
For the next part of this talk, I want to talk about putting it altogether. Throughout this
lecture series, we're going to be doing a lot of likelihood ratios and incorporating them
into the physical exam that we're performing. So we'll talk a little bit about likelihood ratios
now, how to combine different exam maneuvers, and how to hone your skills. So let's do that
now. I will highlight here in this table referring back to the patient that started off our
conversation who we were thinking about whether the patient had an ACL tear. That's our
2 particular exam maneuvers that we're going to show later in this course called the Lachman
maneuver and the anterior drawer tests. And I'll highlight, circled here, the negative
likelihood ratios for those tests are 0.2 and 0.5. So, what does that mean? So again, this
49-year-old man, left-sided anterior knee pain that injured it during a basketball game. If you
just look at the historical information from that little case, in general we can guess that their
pre test probability that this person has an ACL tear is around 20%. And that's, of course,
going to be based on your own experience and also you can actually look at things like the
general rational clinical exam series which will give you, based on historical details, what the
probability is that somebody has a particular condition. So let's say 20% likelihood they have
the disease. Well that means there is an 80% chance they don't have the disease. So the
odds of having the disease is 1 in 4, 20/80. That's your pre test probability. You'll then take
that pre test probability and just multiply the likelihood ratio that we had from the prior slide.
01:46
In that case, the negative likelihood ratio of the test is negative was 0.2. So 1/4 x 0.2 is
0.05. That's your post test odds and then you can reconvert that to your post test probability
by simply taking your post test odds over 1 plus your post test odds and now while our pre
test probability was 20% with 1 single test, we reduce the likelihood that this patient has an
ACL tear to 4.8%. Now that was a relatively complicated series of steps that you'll get
comfortable with once you've done it a few times. But if you don't want to go through that
process every time, there are some cheat sheets, some quick ways to do this without having
to do all the calculations. One would be you could carry around this likelihood ratio nomogram
and maybe you don't want to carry around a likelihood ratio nomogram so there's even a
faster way of doing this. But first on the nomogram let me highlight on the line. The vertical
line on the left is your pre test probability, again in this case 20%. In the middle are a range
of likelihood ratios and you would draw your line on the left from the pre test probability
through the likelihood ratio of the particular test and you would end up getting a post test
probability on the far right line as a result. But if you don't want to carry around a nomogram,
you can just learn these few quick tips. So, a likelihood ratio of either 2, 5, or 10 correlates
with an increase in the post test probability of about 15, 30, and 45%. Likewise, a negative
likelihood ratio of 0.5, 0.2, or 0.1 correlates with a reduction in your pre test probability by
about 15, 30, or 45. So that's a fairly easy straightforward way to remember just by grossly
looking at a likelihood ratio how much the pre test probability is going to be modified up or
down. So how are we going to combine these different maneuvers? I already suggested
that for an ACL tear we have a Lachman's maneuver and we have an anterior drawer sign.
03:54
So, how are we going to put those things together? Well sometimes I like to harken back to
this old metaphor of the elephant and the blind men. And maybe you've heard this before,
but basically 3 blind men are told that there is a new animal that has been found and they're
invited to go and examine this animal. So, the first blind man is around the elephant and all he
feels is the trunk of the elephant and he says "Well, this animal is like a large snake." And the
other blind man is just feeling the body of the elephant and he says "Well, this creature is
basically like a wall and very difficult to move." And then the third blind man feels the tail and
says "This animal is like a rope." And of course none of them are correct. The point here is
that individual physical exam maneuvers rarely will give you the final diagnosis. It's important
to put all of the exam findings together like a constellation of information that can actually
help to flush out what the diagnosis is that you're looking at. Another way of thinking about
this is a piano. A single likelihood ratio or single physical exam test is like one key on a piano,
we're playing one note. And playing a single note on a piano doesn't really tell much of a
story, but if you can play a full D sharp major 7 and all the notes that are involved in that,
that tells a story, it tells a lot more, it flushes out what's going on. So, let's say for example
you had a patient for whom you know they have advanced liver disease and you're not sure
if they have ascites or not, let's say you set their pre test probability of 30%. Well if then
you'll perform several exam maneuvers, say shifting dullness, you're looking for bulging flanks,
peripheral edema and a fluid wave. If all those tests are negative, your pre test probability
when you combine those maneuvers falls from 30% down to 2.5% which essentially excludes
ascites. So, make sure that when you're doing the physical exam, you're not playing notes,
you're playing chords. So how do we actually combine exam maneuvers? We simply multiply
the likelihood ratios together. It's very easy. So for the Lachman's test of 0.2 and the anterior
drawer of 0.5, we take those pre test odds, we multiply them by both of those likelihood
ratios and end up with a new post test odds of 0.025.
06:08
We can tell our patient "You don't
have an ACL tear and there's no
reason to get an MRI at this point." Alright, so for the last section here I wanted to talk about
how to hone your skills. First of all, complete this course. You've already begun,
congratulations. Secondly, you're going to want to examine patients before and after utilizing
technology. I'm not suggesting we abandon diagnostic imaging, it is an invaluable skill that
has only gotten better with time. But when you examine the patient at the bedside and you
think that their spleen is normal in size and then you get a CT scan for whatever reason and
they have an 11 cm spleen, go back, re-examine that patient. This is the perfect person to
really fine tune your splenomegaly examination skills on. And, I also encourage you as you're
going through these lectures to sit next to a colleague or a peer and go through the course
with a classmate. Watching me do these exam maneuvers is typically not sufficient. You need
to actually go through the motor memory, moving your muscles around in space and
examining your colleagues at least, if not patients, to really learn how to get these skills locked
in to your memory. And I'll just wrap up by recommending a few sources that helped me
become the clinician that I am today, not to mention my mentors who I learned from at the
bedside, these are some textbooks and resources that I found to be invaluable. Joseph
Sapira's Art and Science of Bedside Diagnosis, Steven McGee's Evidence-Based Physical
Diagnosis which I draw from largely throughout this course, and then Gemma's Rational Clinical
Exam series which has been running for decades and is an invaluable resource for this kind
of up-to-date content. So in summary, the physical exam is invaluable and it's timeless. Once
you learn it, you've got it forever. When examining, please remember to put your patient's
comfort first. And lastly, know and apply the likelihood ratios so that you're practicing an
evidence-based physical exam.